Trans-Pac Peak Holds Strong as Modal Shift Reshapes Freight Networks

Trans-Pacific ocean rates remain elevated as tariff frontloading extends peak season and forces shippers to redesign inland networks. The Freightos Baltic Index puts Asia–U.S. West Coast rates at about $6,129/FEU, down only 1%, and Asia–U.S. East Coast rates at $9,012/FEU. West Coast pricing moved back above $7,000 after August 1 general rate increases, according to FreightWaves.

Weather is adding friction. Typhoon-related congestion at Shanghai, Ningbo, Shenzhen, and Hong Kong has disrupted schedules, with some carriers skipping Shanghai calls. Expect blank sailings, transshipment changes, and less reliable equipment positioning while tariff-driven volume remains concentrated. Section 122 has expired; Section 301 tariffs now cover more than 60 countries at roughly 10%–12.5%, keeping frontloaded demand alive longer than expected.

That pressure is moving inland. Intermodal demand is up 10% year over year as shippers avoid rising truckload costs. Chicago–Elizabeth contract trucking rates are up 31%, compared with 5% for intermodal; Atlanta–Elizabeth trucking is nearly 60% higher, versus 6% for intermodal. Recheck mode guides, pool points, and drayage appointments before committing imported inventory.

Compliance risk is also changing. The Jones Act waiver remains extended through August 16, 2026, supporting energy movements during ongoing disruptions. China’s revised Maritime Code mandates Chinese law for international carriage contracts involving a Chinese loading or discharge port. Since January 1, SOLAS requirements require prompt reporting of lost or drifting freight containers.

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