Freight Pulse & Law Update: Russia Locks Its Diesel Ban Through January While FedEx Freight's Cheapest Base Rates Are Living on Borrowed Time (Nov. 1, 2026)
Russia extended its ban on most producer diesel exports through end-January 2027, and FedEx Freight, the LTL carrier investors just bid up 14%, has 75% of its contract book still un-renewed since June 1. Shippers face a two-sided squeeze: rising fuel surcharges through winter, and a closing window of below-market LTL base rates.
Will Diesel Keep Climbing After Russia's Export Ban Extension?
Russia signed the decree Saturday, October 31, keeping most producer diesel off the export market until end-January 2027, Bloomberg and gCaptain reported.
Russia shipped roughly 510,000 tons of diesel in October but plans about 2.15 million tons in November via targeted exemptions, Deputy PM Alexander Novak said; only four tankers had left Baltic ports with Russian diesel as of late October.
US on-highway diesel averaged $6.352 a gallon the week of October 26 (EIA), up from $6.179 two weeks earlier and about $2.63 above a year ago.
Shipper action: build fuel-escalation clauses into November and December carrier bids instead of eating spot surcharge movements.
Is the FedEx Freight LTL Rate Discount Ending?
FedEx Freight shares jumped about 14% on October 30 after raising its June-December operating profit outlook to $695 million-$715 million, Reuters reported.
Ex-fuel revenue per hundredweight rose just 0.3% year over year, the slowest among major US LTL carriers, versus Old Dominion's 5.1% and Saia's 5.8%.
CEO John Smith said about 25% of the contract portfolio has renewed since June 1 at "the strongest renewal pricing performance in recent years."
A 6.9% general rate increase takes effect January 8, 2027.
Shipper action: if your LTL agreement renews in 2027, bid now while FedEx Freight's base rates remain the softest of the big four, and split base rate from fuel in every comparison.
Baltimore-Glen Burnie Regional Note
For freight on the I-95 and I-695 corridors near the Port of Baltimore and Seagirt Marine Terminal, fuel spikes hit drayage hardest. Lock dray rates for November and December now.
Sources: gCaptain/Bloomberg, EIA, Forwarder News, Reuters
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