Freight Pulse & Law Update: Tender Rejections Spike to 14.3%, Carriers Say the Capacity Exodus Is Still Early, and Diesel Sits at $6.29
National truckload conditions tightened after Labor Day: the Outbound Tender Rejection Index hit 14.32%, diesel reached $6.29 per gallon, and carrier executives say the capacity correction is still early.
Why are tender rejections rising?
FreightWaves reported higher rejections across virtually every major freight market, not because of a storm or Roadcheck event. Dallas, Chicago, Atlanta, and Harrisburg all showed elevated activity.
Key signals:
Dry van is the main pressure point.
Refrigerated rejections are rising with fall harvest demand.
Flatbed remains subdued amid weak housing activity.
No normal post–Labor Day spot-rate rollover has appeared.
Tender rejections typically lead spot rates, making 14.32% an early fourth-quarter warning for shippers.
Is the trucking capacity exodus accelerating?
At Morgan Stanley’s Laguna Conference, Schneider National CEO Jim Filter said the correction is still early. Schneider’s brokerage cut its approved carrier list from approximately 60,000 at peak levels to about 14,000. Werner executives said the market is only in the “second or third inning,” with Q3 one-way rates projected to rise 10%–13% year over year. Drivers leaving the market include enforcement against noncompliant drivers, high diesel costs, and the broker-liability environment surrounding Montgomery. Diesel averaged $6.29 per gallon on September 14, up 68.1% from $3.74 a year earlier, pressuring spot-market carriers when fuel-surcharge recovery lags costs.
What should shippers do before peak season?
Use September and October to repair routing guides, secure backup capacity, and validate carrier compliance. Uber Freight reported that more than 48,000 noncompliant drivers exited the industry, while contract dry-van linehaul reached $2.39 per mile in July.
FMCSA’s 90-day HOS relief remains limited to eligible gasoline and diesel haulers, not blanket dry-van or reefer freight, and CVSA Brake Safety Week’s focus on brake drums and rotors should remain a year-round operating standard.
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Informational only; not legal advice. Consult qualified counsel for compliance decisions.
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